Pat Miller

Member since: Jul 24th, 2007

Pat Miller's Latest Comments

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Open XDrive widget shows free space (Download Squad)

Sep 28th 2007 10:54AM Another AOL'er has since provided a version of this for Windows Vista too. It's available through
http://dev.aol.com/node/649

U.S. in Iraq Through '09? (AOL Elections Blog)

Jul 24th 2007 2:21PM I think Iraq is a true catch-22 situation.

On one hand in last night's debate Richardson was arguing that US-forces should just completely leave Iraq. Our presence it not helping Iraq move forward.

The successes of the 'surge' are very localized improvements for individual neighborhoods. They shift fighting elsewhere and doen't address the underlying power conflict and political stalemates at the top.

Iraq is in need of an in-country political solution and U.S. military cannot bring that about. The decision of the Iraqi legislature to dismiss for the hot summer months shows that they have no true sense of urgency to solve their sectarian and national problems. Departure of U.S. forces will either wake them up -- or allow them to proceed into a full-out civil war if that it will takes before the bulk of Iraqi's demand and support something better.

But... loss of even the limited Iraqi oil supply and spill-over violence across borders that would happen during all-out sectarian civil war couldn't come at a worse time. An Iraqi conflict will spread into it's major oil producing neighbors. Sectarian violence will cross borders in the event of an Iraqi sectarian civil war because the various factions see support for the other factions coming from Iran, SaudiArabia, or Kurdistan, the borders are sufficiently porous, and significant targets are readily found. This at a time when Saudi oil capacity levels have already been in slow decline for the past 8 months and major finds of 'easy oil' haven't occured for decades. Reports are beginning to show that the global oil supply 'peak' may have occured in Dec 2006. And if so it has occured when China and India are in the midst of transformational economic growth - based on oil. An unstable middle-east will push global oil supplies and energy costs into an immediate supply & cost crisis that will have destabilizing effects on global economics, trade, and our entire oil-based way of life. If stability in OPEC nations melts down it's anybody's guess as to how quickly oil hits $100 a barrel - or much more.

Maintaining a stable (even if slowly dwindling) global oil supply for the next 10-30 years is the only way we'll have time to build and transition in a *controlled* way to alternative energy sources and technologies.

So on the other side of the catch-22 we can't just withdraw all troops and let the middle east blow up behind us.

So the real question becomes, how can we remove/replace the USA troops in Iraq to force Iraq to move on with it's political solution(s) while at the same time preventing sectarian war across the heart of the Middle East and the global oil-supply crisis that it would facilitate?

Sigh. Send your thanks for this mess to Cheney, Rumsfield, and G W Bush. I believe getting a US-friendly government and establishing US military-bases in Iraq in preparation for the 'peak-oil' supply crisis that Cheney believed would start between 2005-2010 is why Bush/Cheney really went into Iraq to begin with. The focus on soft evidence on WMD's was just their choice for a well-executed marketing effort to build public support for entering Iraq. But why/how we're now in Irag is now just a history thesis topic. The USA has already forcibly removed the Hussian straightjacket and allowed Iraq to break into pieces with no working infrastructure. Now what?

Sunni's/Shite's don't trust and won't work with each other. Neither side will allow the other to proceed with an effective government because they're afraid their own group will be subjutated.

Going back to a 'caretaker' government of some form with a UN peacekeeper forces and oil revenues going into national 'trust' coffers may be the only solution to try to re-establish working infrastructures and restore public safety without giving Iraqi's any 'invader' country as a target. But it must be apparent to all Iraqis and to the world at large that restoring order in the Middle East during the starting oil supply crisis is a truely global concern and is not being done in ways that primarily benefit any one country (the USA).

But realisticly I don't think there is time to educate and build support for such a plan. It doesn't fit in sound bite images or messages. Sort term politics will likely force a destablizing change first - like a major drawdown of USA troops before a stable Iraq exists. In terms of world tensions we ain't seen nothing yet...

UN: No Rapid Withdrawal From Iraq (AOL Elections Blog)

Jul 24th 2007 2:01PM I agree with the article's basic point -- the USA shouldn't just pull all troops out of Iraq and let the region explode into a regional religious civil war.

But the points in 'vegastracon's comment are laughable. Double our troop size? The military is having to extend deployments and empty national guard bases as it is. The only way to double the troop size is to restart the draft. Is that what he wants?

And "he realizes that a boot on the ground in Iraq is one less boot on the ground someplace else" doesn't make sense either way it's interpreted.

If he's referring to al-Qaeda boots it's laughable because the fighting in Iraq is largely local shite/sunni militia's targeting the US forces and all opposing sects. They are fighting for local authority and control and have no desire to attack the USA homeland. While Iraqi Sunni's may get some support from al-Qaeda they are not dependant upon it. And as attacks in UK and Afganistan show, al-Qaeda continues to actively recruit and initiate activities outside of Iraq. Our US forces in Iraq don't prevent al-Qaeda from entering the USA -- just the opposite, the reduction of available reserve forces in the USA reduces our security presence 'at home'.

And if he's referring to US troop boots on the ground then it works AGAIST us. Having all available USA troops commited to Iraq reduces our effectiveness at home and prevents the USA from being able to perform needed support missions with allies or for humanitarian purposes (natural disasters, Darfur, etc.)