Punk is not dead; Five predictions for Web Video in 2008
Time magazine writes, "So if 2006 was the year of You, 2007 was the year of Them. Big media companies (like this one) stuffed their sites with blogs, podcasts and video." We find this view of web UGC about as far-sighted as the people who said, "Oh, TV is just a fad. Radio. That's where it's at".
Sure, the big media companies have rushed to cash in on the legions of online eyeballs there for the taking. With sorta-kinda ubiquitous broadband and much better codecs, web video has undergone an amazing transformation over the last few years. Who didn't expect big media to cash in, or at least try? There's gold in them there broadband connections, and the suits in LA and New York can smell it, even over their D&G cologne.
The rub lies in licensing; both for content, and for the airwaves. Big media is big media simply because they control the means of production. It takes millions to start a TV station and, it takes millions to license a TV episode. For those reasons, TV has to "get it right" nearly every time. Get ratings, or get canceled. That's the Hollywood way.
Web content, on the other hand, can be produced on the cheap. Ok, sure, that means there'll be a ton of terrible content. Really bad, really lousy, really unwatchable content that not even a mother could love. There will also be gems. There are far too many talented writers, actors, comedians, and would-be directors on this little blue orb for us to claim UGC is stillborn. 2008 isn't the year UGC dies; It's the year UGC grows up. Individuals producing content won't win the day, at least not in series form, but small dedicated teams of people with ideas, writing skill and equipment -- which gets cheaper by the day -- will.
We say, with all due respect, screw Time Magazine. Here are our predictions for 2008:
YouTube's lousy quality and miserable interface will cost them marketshare
Either YouTube miraculously gets it right by upgrading their encoding quality, user interface, and tools for sorting through the mountains of unmanageable content they have, or some slippery competitor will. We're constantly amazed at the lack of quality on the popular video sharing sites; And at the lack of visitors to the well-built ones.
High-quality UGC begins to blur the lines between pro and amateur
The amateurs are starting to learn the tricks. Lighting, sound, video quality, editing; The bar is being raised all around by dedicated amateurs. They're out there. The problem is, with lousy quality on the popular video sites (and amazing quality on the unpopular ones) no one sees it. The web is a clearinghouse of DIY information, and those DIY ethics and free sharing of information are just beginning to breed a whole new generation of audio-visual storytellers. There will be a wildly popular web based short comedy series which in some way mirrors what we've seen on TV for years. If not in 2008, then certainly by 2009. The only problem is, if the monetization options aren't there, those brilliant pioneers will be snapped up by big media. Andy Samberg, anyone?
Seesmic will die a horrible death. Complete with French accents
It's all the hype in the hipster blogging community right now, but Seesmic is doomed to fail. People simply will not watch each other monolouge into a camera for very long. There isn't anything interesting about it, there isn't anything captivating about it, and worst of all, you can't really watch it at work. We will continue to burn idle minutes on Twitter but, any rich media Twitter clone will never take off. Seesmic might have had a chance 2 years ago; today it's stillborn.
Great writing + better than average production * reasonable length = gold
We figure the maximum length of watchable web video is around 12-15 minutes, maybe a little less. Adult Swim has already figured out how to produce popular shows in this length format, but they have almost zero depth. Granted, they also have limited audiences which lean towards 18-25 males who love marijuana almost as much as they love their XBox. The winner in this post-UGC explosion period will be the writer-director team who find the magic formula required to squeeze depth, watch-ability, entertainment, and serial value into a 12 minute show.
Semi-pro daily shows will win the 2008 race
It's almost impossible for an amateur to produce a daily show of any quality. Semi-pro or, "web pro" shows not run by the major media companies will win 2008, hands down. Mahalo Daily is already proving that a little hype, a pro-quality correspondent, and some ingenuity can really sell the sizzle. A comedy based, daily produced show will clean up 2008, but it won't be produced by a total amateur. Our money is on something political; especially if the writer's strike lingers well into the new year.
Making quality TV isn't easy, and we won't pretend that anyone can do it. What we will assert is, the people who can pull it off are out there. They're polishing their scripts, charging up their DV20's and rigging lighting systems at The Home Depot. They'll find us this year, and Time Magazine will likely eat its own words.
