"Microsoft is Dead"

After the launch of Vista (aka. Windows ME part 2), Bill Gates stepping down in 08, and the sticker shock of Office 2007. One would think Microsoft is dead. Quite honestly Paul is right, but Microsoft isn't going away soon. Ray Ozzie (Head of the NEW Microsoft) sees the companies future in consumer products like the Zune (a train wreck of a DMP), and the Xbox 360 (not ver 1.0 or 1.2, but the elite v1.5) as it's future source of income.

I think the better question we as a user base should be asking is: What next? If windows is completely unreliable then to we migrate the non-tech users to Macs, is Linux the answer? The lack of a stable (non-updateable) build of Windows could cripple buisnesses, and home users. Plus all the stupid buisness owners wanting Windows-ready applications for their workflows. This would devistate them.

This is the better to be asking...

Wow.
The author of that article clearly misses which demographic of customers Microsoft works the hardest for. Pretty much all of his points relate exclusively to personal users and not corporate users. Microsoft's cash cow is Outlook. Not Office but just Outlook. Outlook is currently the de facto standard for email in the business world. Sure there are other products that can replicate parts of Outlook's functionality but there is still no single application that can replace Outlook and all its functions. You can get email applications and personal data managment systems, but few with both, and even fewer that come close to the neat and tidy package Outlook creates. Now don't try and paint me as a Mircosoft fanboy, I hate Outlook. I work for a company that deals with email hosting, managment, filtering, etc and ever day I see the bugs in Outlook. I spend endless hours troubleshooting users' Outlook installs only to have some function miraculously recover and start working randomly or just plain crash just as randomly.

OpenOffice is not the end of Microsoft. If that were true Linux would have gobbled up Microsoft's marketshare long ago and that just hasn't happend. Why? Because IT employees rarely sign checks. The head of a company is almost always somebody who will continue to purchase the same Microsoft products so long as the interface stays resonably the same and they don't feel they'll have to learn something new. Heads of companies hate change unless its the kind of change that will lead to much higher revenues. Retraining their entire staff to use something else other than Outlook (and trust me, even if it was a complete CLONE, they'd still want training) is much more expensive that just upgrading everybody's MS Office suite every 3-4 years. Essentially what this means is that until OpenOffice encorporates a quality PIM/Email application it is unlikely that we'll see any major shift in the Office Application market (in terms of the corporate world).

Microsoft is not dead. Don't be ignorant of the hurdles left to be cleared before that statement can be uttered.

@#1 - Would you people stop flaming Vista? It's a great release that brings stability improvements that are on par with the change that nt 4.0 to Win2000 brought, and security improvements that are unparalleled (for Windows).

@#2 - I think you missed the point - what he's saying is that Microsoft will continue to make tons of money, but will no longer be the fear of the entire tech sector.

I'm honestly not sure I agree with what the author is saying. The Xbox 360, which definitely can't be called Microsoft's old creation is definitely successful and is something that its competitors (esp. Sony) fear. As well, Microsoft continues to expand in a truly, well, Microsoft fashion. Just look at Windows Mobile. In fact, in the past 10 years Microsoft has arguable become more of an influence that people may realize - it has grabbed a VERY sizeable chunk of the server market, has about 1/3 of the Smart phone market, basically destroyed the Palm OS in the PDA market, and is currently taking over the living room.
The only areas where they're actually screwing up is in the PMP market, but it's too early to say conclusively. And the other one is the Web 2.0 phenomenon. My problem with that is just like the web companies tend to move faster, they tend to die faster. Since they rely almost exclusively on ads, during a recession (like in 2001) 75% of these companies either die or become a shadow of their former selves. Unless Google and Yahoo manage to get in with the corporate paying types, their stocks are just a timebomb, ticking away until the next tech bubble burst.

Hmm, I think it's a bit too early to say Microsoft is dead. But then the field is littered with expert and insider opinions that are just plain wrong:

http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/21pogue-email/

I just finished reading it, and to be honest, the author really missed some very important points (and facts).

It is like, the whole intention of it was to flame and troll Msoft....

"Windows is for grandmas" what?!

Microsoft will never be dead, maybe other companies will take over in the software market. But dont expect Microsoft to leave the competition right away.

#3, please. Vista is less stable than XP at this point and a whole lot slower. Their UAC is a joke compared to what it should have been. OS X doesn't nag the crap out of people every time they try to move or rename a file.

Vista isn't ME 2.0, It isn't Bob. Office 07 isn't another "rerelease" of previous versions. The company ISN'T ignoring the demands of the market and settling to continue to strong arm the market anymore.

As Microsoft moves forward, I've become more and more impressed with how it's handled it's releases and new innovations.

They've become a openly communicating company (MSDN has improved 40 fold over the past 2 years alone!) that takes users input (List View was GONE in early builds of Vista's Explorer... but added back due to user demand...there are dozens of examples of this, especially with the windows API and Developers.)

Vista's 6-9 month PUBLIC beta test, PLUS .net 3.0's and DX 10's, and Visual Studios 07's DEVELOPER centric focus(NOTE 07 has no DRASTIC new features but seems to be almost everything most windows-based developers could ever hope for. a refined, cleaned up, faster and more enjoyable experience. Seeing a trend here?) seems to imply to me that they're becoming MORE of a threat as this big company learns to move faster, communicate better, and woo programmers and end users alike to the new "Windows Way" of things.

As Vista gains market share, Server's new version looms, MSSQL continues to outperform, and Mobile puts PalmOS out, it seems to me people are throwing sticks at an oncoming bull dowser that is Microsoft failing to fit into the stereotype that the tech community as cast it to be.

For an example of how well they're throwing off the chains of misconception that bind them, look at the comments that criticize Microsoft in this very thread. "UAC IS ANNOYINGGGGGG" so is not running as root... but it's necessary...and Microsoft handles admin elevation considerably more smoothly than Linux. "VISTA IS LESS STABLE THAN XP" mostly due to the fact that XP's been around for oh I don't know 6 years and has had 6 years worth of patches, and drivers released for it.

Microsoft "DEAD" in the eyes of the tech world? Heh. Laughable if I didn't pity the people that bet on Vista being another ME.

#6: Care to back up either of your assertions about Vista? I've found Vista to be more stable than XP. Speed-wise it seems comparable but I haven't played any games on it. Vista seems as fast as XP on my system which by today's standards is not a speed demon (athlon64 3000+, 1GB of RAM, nvidia 6600GT video card).

Quite frankly Vista rocks. Its a far better experience than XP. I'd note that at launch XP was in far worse shape driver-wise. And given the extended release time for Vista its totally ridiculous that vendors couldn't have their software ready (why for example did Apple not have a Vista-compatible version of iTunes ready when Windows is their biggest market?) in time for launch.

This article is a huge crock of shit. There are plenty of companies that fear Microsoft. Google and Microsoft aren't even directly competing. The desktop isn't going anywhere.

Any company that -sells- software has something to fear from the biggest software company in the world. Microsoft might be a big slow corporation, but what they lack in speed they make up for with power. We're talking about a *software* company that can just decide to start taking on consumer electronics sectors like video game consoles on a whim.

Google gives shit away for free. It's hard to compete with that until you start putting out software that needs to be fully featured and backed up by accountable support. When I see GoogleOS, or an Office analog that matches Microsofts' feature set I'll be convinced.

The desktop. Y'know, not all computers are constantly and permanently connected to the internet, and I'm willing to bet there will be for a long, long, time.

Why is there a need for conspiracy theories here? It will be plainly obvious to everyone if Microsoft dies. They will start cutting jobs, open-sourcing things, and lastly, it will be all over the news.

i agree with Jason Kratz, I have been enjoying Visa since it came out.

And so far, it is the best Windows I have ever used (obviously)

Oh no!

I stumbled across that essay yesterday. Why... WHY do you have to make this complete nonsense even more wide-spread, Download Squad?

Well, it's good that you recognized the John Dvorak approach in the article, but still... And you call that thing a "great, concise essay". Huh?

Just because something attracts attention doesn't mean it's good. Maybe that is one of the central lessons the blogosphere has yet to learn.

Whereas I agree that the new wave of kids nowadays are using more open source and the shinier OSX systems, the fact remains that the only thing that ahs had any clout for the past decade has been Windows.

Most good/stable software has been and will still be released as Windows based first and then OSX Compatible and maybe Linux Ready as an afterthought. Yes, Mac has gained more clout in the world of today, but the software that is released for it is not for power users. Compare things like iMovie (hell the whole iWhatever software group) to things like Sony's Vegas Pro or even Windows Movie Maker. There's just no competition in the fact that there are far more options that work much faster on a windows based PC than on a Mac.

Yes, this line will blur and eventually dissapear once Boot Camp becomes a stable staple of the Mac, and then when they revamp it so it can run in the background of your regular OSX platform and run all the windows code for the software in OSX in real time, but we're just not there yet. And linux kernels are not for everyday users and the compatibility while growing still sucks.

Aside from the "well known" 2 competitors of Windows and Microsoft, who else is there that runs a viable OS? At the moment, no one. When Google becomes a major OS player, then there might be something to talk about, especially if they find a way to use windows based programs directly within their OS environment using coding that they've leased from MS to make the software. I don't know, I'm not a real techie IT guy, just a guy who enjoys reading about technology and software.

So from a layman's point of view who is 23 years old, Microsoft is still the software to get becuase it's what we know. Mac's are like cheerleaders: Pretty, but stupid; and Linux is like that freaky, drugged out hippie that shows up to class occasionally and is really smart, but is too stoned half the time to really contribute.

Just my opinion. I think he makes some good points that with the advent of the internet supremacy, OS no longer has the spotlight, but MS and the Desktop is far from dead.

~JYH

This is the most elitist article I have ever read. I agree that the offer totally missed the demographic which uses microsoft products. Not to mention that it is the complete majority. First of all industry analysts have been predicting the death of the desktop since the late 90's, it will never happen. All this guy can see is what him and his cronies use their computers for. The American/global economy is driven by productivity and productivity at the current time is driven by affordable pcs and servers running microsoft software maintained by affordable IT people who have been trained for 20 years at considerable expense. Nobody who runs any kind of business is going to drop microsoft to accelerate its "death" and train all their people on linux or rotten apple software. Furthermore there is a huge demographic the author avoids addressing like the plague because it doesn't fit into his neat elitist concept: Gamers! I wouldn't even own any kind of computer if it weren't for pc games. Consoles are a joke and serious gamers use keyboards and everyone knows it. PC gaming is a multi-billion dollar industry and its getting bigger everyday. And don't tell me you are going to integrate counter-strike into my firefox browser on a mac or some shit and its going to run better than ever. PC gaming is about hardware, it drives a huge industry of high end computer parts which is only getting stronger. As long as apple doesn't build a desktop that folks like me can swap out components and make it into a gaming computer, we won't go anywhere near it. World of Warcraft for example is still owning the market after 2+ years and will continue to for years to come and there isn't a Mac on the market that can hold a candle to my modest $1000-$1500 pc when playing that or any other game. Thats not a wild boast either. Again, one word describes this article "microsoft is dead" *ELITIST*
Wishing for a thing doesn't make it so.

Yes, Microsoft needs to be more agile to compete in this fast moving world. Having said that I am very impressed with Vista. I have it (the business edition) installed since Nov. And have recently updated to the Vista Ultimate. So far the experience has been great. It is very stable and secure, at least when compared with XP Pro.

I sometimes wonder if it is the tall-poppy syndrome that drives people to bad-mouth MS for everything and anything they do.

The fact that Microsoft has matured as a corporation and has a more reasonable attitude to competition is a good thing, but it doesn't mean it's over... They still make good products (Vista and Office 2007 especially) and they have huge research teams working on a lot of stuff. They're not dead, and nor are they stagnating.

Are we forgetting that there is much, MUCH more to Microsoft than just Windows... ?

I've been an user of the various incarnations of Microsoft Office for the past ten years. Anyone that feels balsy enough to claim that one of the company's several cash cows is market dead in the presence of free alternatives is merely looking for a cheap headline.

I'm a skeptic when it comes to upgrading software - why would I want to pay money for a Microsoft product when I can get similar functionality in OpenOffice? For starters, until all of the other clones out there, Microsoft took a large leap last year and completely re-did the interfaces and logic behind how Users use their product. They redesigned each and every toolbar, throwing away the face the software had held for so many years in favor of something that takes far less time to use. Office Vista has a far greater depth of tools and intelligence that mean that despite the fact that it may have taken me a week to re-adjust to how it works, I can now get my tasks and presentations done in half the time it used to.

If a company that makes their profits from trying to copy Microsoft products feels that they can get away with saying things like that, they clearly have a screw or two loose.

Wow, so many LONG comments:)
just one observation - http://paulgraham.com/microsoft.html has "Y!" logo as its favico...

You want proof that Microsoft is dead? It's employees use Flickr ( instead of live.com or MSN homepage )

http://www.flickr.com/photos/gamerscore/